Title race
Who Can Still Win the F1 2026 Title?
Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 drivers’ championship by 102 points, with 6 Grands Prix and 150 points still to race for. Five drivers can still catch Antonelli: George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris. Antonelli can clinch it at the United States Grand Prix. Across 10,000 simulated finishes to the season, Antonelli takes the title in more than 99% of them.
Title race · 6 Grands Prix left
Mercedes
+102
Lead
over Russell
150
Points left
6
Still in it
leader included
>99%
Title chance
Antonelli can clinch it at the United States Grand Prix - it happens there in 6% of our simulations. Most likely settled at the Mexico City Grand Prix (68%).
What has to happen at the United States Grand Prix
Kimi Antonelli is champion after the United States Grand Prix if:
- Antonelli wins, Russell finishes 10th or lower and Hamilton finishes 5th or lower.
Anything else and it goes on to the next round. 125 points are still available after this one, so Antonelli needs to leave with a lead bigger than that over everyone. Rival by rival:
- George Russell (102 behind): out of contention if Antonelli outscores them by 24 or more.
- Lewis Hamilton (111 behind): out of contention if Antonelli outscores them by 15 or more.
- Max Verstappen (119 behind): out of contention if Antonelli outscores them by 7 or more.
- Charles Leclerc (125 behind): out of contention if Antonelli outscores them by 1 or more.
- Lando Norris (139 behind): has to outscore Antonelli by 14 or more to stay in it.
United States Grand Prix start times in your timezone.
Title chances
The share of 10,000 simulated finishes to the season each contender ends on top - built from every driver’s own results this year, not from odds or opinion. How it works is at the bottom of the page.
When it gets settled
The round at which the title is mathematically decided, across the same simulations. The last round counts every season that went the distance.
Drivers: who’s still in it
Can reach is a driver’s points plus every point still available - 150 from 6 Grands Prix. Anyone who can’t reach Antonelli’s 340 is out. The United States column is what the United States Grand Prix means for each of them, in points scored there against Antonelli.
| Pos | Driver | Pts | Gap | Can reach | United States | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | 340 | — | 490 | Leads | >99% |
| 2 | George Russell | 238 | −102 | 388 | Out if outscored by 24+ | <1% |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 229 | −111 | 379 | Out if outscored by 15+ | <1% |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | 221 | −119 | 371 | Out if outscored by 7+ | <1% |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 215 | −125 | 365 | Out if outscored by 1+ | <1% |
| 6 | Lando Norris | 201 | −139 | 351 | Must outscore by 14+ | <1% |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | 138 | −202 | 288 | Out | 0% |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar | 97 | −243 | 247 | Out | 0% |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | 75 | −265 | 225 | Out | 0% |
| 10 | Pierre Gasly | 41 | −299 | 191 | Out | 0% |
| 11 | Arvid Lindblad | 38 | −302 | 188 | Out | 0% |
| 12 | Franco Colapinto | 27 | −313 | 177 | Out | 0% |
| 13 | Oliver Bearman | 23 | −317 | 173 | Out | 0% |
| 14 | Nico Hulkenberg | 13 | −327 | 163 | Out | 0% |
| 15 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 10 | −330 | 160 | Out | 0% |
| 16 | Esteban Ocon | 7 | −333 | 157 | Out | 0% |
| 17 | Fernando Alonso | 7 | −333 | 157 | Out | 0% |
| 18 | Carlos Sainz | 7 | −333 | 157 | Out | 0% |
| 19 | Alexander Albon | 5 | −335 | 155 | Out | 0% |
| 20 | Yuki Tsunoda | 1 | −339 | 151 | Out | 0% |
| 21 | Lance Stroll | 0 | −340 | 150 | Out | 0% |
| 22 | Valtteri Bottas | 0 | −340 | 150 | Out | 0% |
| 23 | Sergio Perez | 0 | −340 | 150 | Out | 0% |
Constructors’ title
Mercedes lead the 2026 constructors’ championship by 134 points, with 6 Grands Prix and 258 points still to race for. Three teams can still catch Mercedes: Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull Racing. Across 10,000 simulated finishes to the season, Mercedes take the title in more than 99% of them.
Mercedes can’t clinch at the United States Grand Prix. Even the maximum 43 points there, with Ferrari scoring nothing, would leave a 177-point lead against 215 still to race for. The earliest it can be settled is the Mexico City Grand Prix.
- Ferrari: can’t be knocked out there, whatever happens.
- McLaren (239 behind): has to outscore Mercedes by 24 or more to stay in it.
- Red Bull Racing (246 behind): has to outscore Mercedes by 31 or more to stay in it.
| Pos | Team | Pts | Gap | Can reach | United States | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 578 | — | 836 | Leads | >99% |
| 2 | Ferrari | 444 | −134 | 702 | Can’t be knocked out | <1% |
| 3 | McLaren | 339 | −239 | 597 | Must outscore by 24+ | <1% |
| 4 | Red Bull Racing | 332 | −246 | 590 | Must outscore by 31+ | <1% |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | 100 | −478 | 358 | Out | 0% |
| 6 | Alpine | 68 | −510 | 326 | Out | 0% |
| 7 | Haas F1 Team | 30 | −548 | 288 | Out | 0% |
| 8 | Audi | 23 | −555 | 281 | Out | 0% |
| 9 | Williams | 12 | −566 | 270 | Out | 0% |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 7 | −571 | 265 | Out | 0% |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 | −578 | 258 | Out | 0% |
How this is worked out
The maths is certain. A Grand Prix win is worth 25 points and a sprint win 8 - there’s no longer a point for fastest lap. A team can take at most 43 from a Grand Prix (a one-two) and 15 from a sprint. A driver or team stays in contention while their points plus everything still available at least matches the leader’s. Level on points, the title goes to whoever has more Grand Prix wins, then more second places, and so on - where we can’t settle a tie that way, we count the rival as still in it rather than rule them out.
The chances are a simulation. We replay the rest of the season 10,000 times. In each simulated race, every driver on the grid draws one of their own Grand Prix results from this season (17 races) - the most recent counting most, with each race further back worth 15% less - retirements included as often as they actually happened. The draws are ranked into a finishing order, so exactly one driver wins each race, and the points are added to the real standings. A title chance is the share of those seasons a contender finishes on top.
What it can’t know: upgrades, grid penalties, team orders, or form changing from here. It projects this season’s results forward; it isn’t a prediction. The maths never bends to it - nobody still in contention is shown at 0%, and nobody is shown at 100% until the title is actually won.